Thursday, October 30, 2014

Rural Areas Growing, Urban Areas Not

What is happening in the New Mexico economy that is positive is happening in the rural counties. The conclusion comes from the detail on the September job figures released last Friday, October 24, by the Department of Workforce Solutions. (Yes, I’m late in passing this along. Oh, well…)
Albuquerque, Santa Fe and Farmington conspired to drop 2,700 wage jobs between September 2013 and September 2014. Las Cruces added 100 jobs during the year, which really doesn’t count.
Statewide there were 6,400 more wage jobs over the year. The rural counties had to add 9,100 jobs to overcome the urban losses and get to the annual addition.
Among the sectors, statewide, education and health services has resumed its status as leading expanding area by number with 4,500 new wage jobs, year over year, for a 3.6% increase. With 128,400 jobs for September, education and health services is the state’s largest employer group with a 31,300 job, or 32%, lead over the declining professional and business services group which dropped another 1,300 jobs September to September.
Finance was the growth leader by percentage increase with 6.9% more jobs and a sector job total of 35,600. Mining and logging, pretty much meaning oil and gas, grew by 6.1% over the year to 27,300 jobs.
Retail added 1,900 jobs to total 93,100, no mystery given that all the new jobs were in rural counties. Albuquerque, Santa Fe and Las Cruces lost 600 retail jobs for the year.
Manufacturing was the leading loser sector for the year, down 2,300 jobs with 900 of the losses, or 39%, coming in Albuquerque which has 60% of the state’s manufacturing jobs.
Government lost 1,800 jobs over the year with 1,400 job losses in local government. Local government in metro Albuquerque dropped 200 jobs with no change in Santa Fe and Las Cruces. That means that the rural counties plus Farmington lost 1,200 local government jobs.

Tuesday, October 21, 2014

September Jobs Report: Fewer Seeking Work, More Working

Fewer people were looking for work in New Mexico during September as compared to September 2013, but more were working which meant the unemployment rate went down. That lower rate—6.6% down from 7.2% in September 2013—got the first attention in this morning’s news release from the Department of Workforce Solutions.
DWS attention then moved to the year-over-year increase of 6,400 wage jobs, or 0.8%.
Compared to other states, New Mexico’s September job performance, neither year-over-year nor between August and September, did not stand out, meaning the changes were not statistically significant.
On a seasonally unadjusted basis, New Mexico’s labor force went from 924,400 in September 2013 to 918,700 in September 2014. That drop of 5,700 was a 0.62% decline.
Our neighbors did better. Colorado, with less than three times the number of New Mexico’s wage jobs, added more than ten times the number of jobs, year over year (a seasonally adjusted 67,400 as compared to 6,400). Arizona, home to 2.6 million wage jobs in September or 112,700 jobs, “only” added 51,600 jobs for the year or just eight times the New Mexico total.
Selected positive sector performance, courtesy of DWS, is education and health services (+4,500); finance (+2,300); retail (+1,900); mining (+1,600); information (+800). Selected sectors losing jobs are manufacturing (-2,300); government (-1,800); professional and business services (-1,300).
The retail performance adds to the mystery of the state economy. Expanding retail suggests that people have more money to spend and that suggests increased employment. It will be interesting next week when the metro numbers are released to see the source of the retail improvement. Metro or rural?

Friday, October 10, 2014

Pending Sales Increase for First Time in a Year

During September, pending sales of single family detached homes in metro Albuquerque increased 10.9% from September 2013. There real news here is that this is first year-over-year increase since September 2013.
September pending sales of 854 homes did drop by three from August, but this can be attributed to the seasonal slowing as school has started and we head into cooler months.
Townhouse and condo pending sales showed a nice 30-unit or 58% jump from September 2013, the second year-over-year increase of 2014.
Closed sales during September maybe didn’t quite go off a cliff, but the 703 sales were 14%, or 119 homes fewer than the 822 homes sold during August. The 2014 peak for closed sales came in July with 823 homes sold. Pending sales peaked in May at 996.
Prices, both median and average dropped both from August 2013 and from July.
The average sales price, $208,936 during September, was the lowest since March. The average price was $7,212 lower, or 3%, than August and down 1.6% from September 2013. The median price was $175,000, a level last seen in April.
The price peak for 2014 came in July for both median and average prices.
The homes that sold during September were on the market an average of 65 days, the same as August and two days more than September 2013.
During September, 82% of August’s 857 pending sales turning into closed sales. For August, 83% of July’s 986 pending sales became closed.

Friday, September 26, 2014

NM Economy No Longer the Worst; Rural Counties Gain

The Department of Workforce Solutions didn’t quite let the work week end before sending out the detailed August job figures in the Labor Market Review newsletter. But DWS was close. The email came out at 4:51 P.M.
No wonder. Much exists to avoid. Three of the four metro areas lost wage jobs in the year August 2013 to August 2014. Las Cruces showed no change with Albuquerque down 600, Santa Fe down 900, and Farmington dropping 1,000 jobs or 2.1%. The metro job loss total was 2,500.
The state gained 4,600 jobs, year over year, 0.6% increase. That means the rural counties gained 7,100 jobs.
This stellar mediocrity bumped the state into a tied for 40th in job production among the states. Toot the horns; no longer the worst. Nebraska, New Hampshire and Ohio tied our job creation standard.
Among the sectors statewide, the critical manufacturing sector continued to disappear, down month-leading 3,000 jobs to 26,900. Professional and business services dropped 2,400 jobs with government down 800. The losses concentrated among the feds, down 1,000.
Education and health services added 6,100 jobs (shades of five years ago, DWS noted) with another 2,200 in finance. Mining, meaning mostly oil and gas, added 1,400 jobs.
To get to the loss of 600 jobs, Albuquerque got rid of 1,400 jobs in professional and business services and 1,000 in manufacturing.
Just noticed the DWS is called the regions “Workforce Investment Areas.” Bleah.

Friday, September 19, 2014

Wage Jobs Increase, Labor Force Decreases

The headline item will be that New Mexico led the nation in percentage terms in adding wage jobs between July and August. The 0.6%, or 4,600 job, increase was on a seasonally adjusted basis. Wage jobs increased in 35 states, said the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which released the monthly jobs report today. Over the year from August 2013 to August 2014, again for wage jobs on a seasonally adjusted basis, the increase was even better—a 5,500 job increase to 817,300 wage jobs.
Take away the seasonal adjustment and the wage job report remains decent, at least for New Mexico. Over the August to August year, jobs increased 4,600, or 0.6%, to 814,800. The monthly increase was 7,700 jobs or almost (gasp!) one percent.
The happy news ends.
Go to “employment,” the other measure of the number of people working or looking for work, and the story is different.
All four of the numbers for employment showed declines in August. That is to say, employment in August was lower, or a seasonally adjusted basis, than in July 2014 (-1,500) and in August 2013 (-2,700). The figures also were lower without the seasonal adjustment.
Continuing erosion of the labor force appears to explain much of the change. Fewer people appear to be working or looking for work, which is the definition of the labor force.

Thursday, September 11, 2014

Home Sales Drift Down

During August the metro Albuquerque real estate market continued drifting gently down as compared to 2013. The Greater Albuquerque Association of Realtors released the August sales report yesterday.
Closed sales of single family detached homes, 822 during August, were down both from July and from August 2013. Sales were down only one unit from the 823 closed sales during July, but the performance broke a seven month string of month over month sales increases. Sales were down 35, or 4.1%, from August 2013, continuing the year-over-year sales declines that have characterized 2014.
The 857 sales pending during August represented a double decline. Pending sales were down 29 August 2013 and 129, or 13.1%, from July, indicated a further drop in closed sales for September.
The average price for homes closed during August was $216,148, incorporating the contribution toward raising the average from three homes sold in the $1 million and over group. The average price was down from both July and from August 2013.
The median price was $184,100 for August. The figure was down from July but up $1,600 from August 2013. The price group from $200,000 to $249,000 was the most popular during August with 134 homes sold. However, at $49,000, that group is wider than other price categories. If combined, the two next lower price groups accounted for 143 sales during the month. The two groups are from $160,000 to $179,000 and from $180,000 to $199,000. These two cover a $39,000 spread.
Home sales took an average of 65 days to close during August. That was five days longer than during July 2014 and August 2014.

Wednesday, September 10, 2014

Gary King Incredibly Disappointing

I have always thought of Gary King as a decent guy, not someone I would for barring the Republican being an idiot, but decent. That’s over. I have also felt that King’s long quest to be elected governor and follow his dad, Gov. Bruce, was a little strange.
This morning’s Albuquerque Journal brings news that King is deeply into parochialism that is one of New Mexico’s big problems.
That’s my take on King’s remark at a Belen Fundraiser that Gov. Susana Martinez “does not have a Latino heart.” The remark is in a brief video published yesterday on the web site of the conservative magazine, “The Weekly Standard.”
Find the video at: http://www.weeklystandard.com/blogs/nm-dem-says-gop-guv-martinez-does-not-have-latino-heart_804671.html.
Just one of King's many missed points is that Martinez represents the majority of New Mexico Hispanics. She is a generation or two out of Mexico. The people who have been in the state and proudly proclaim that accident makes them better people, they are the minority. This is as of the 2000 census.

Monday, September 8, 2014

Minnesota Road Sign

The sign said, “Concentrate on Driving.” It was on U.S. 52 distracting drivers heading southeast from Minneapolis to Rochester.
In the same vein, our rental Camry had a disclaimer on the dashboard screen warning drivers that looking at the screen could be dangerous.

Wednesday, August 27, 2014

Administration Continues Hiding From Job Reality

Comes the cold water for any overall jolliness that might want to happen as a result of last week’s job performance news. Yes, New Mexico did post the nation’s second largest percentage wage job increase from June to July on a seasonally adjusted basis. Our 4,400 job increase was a 0.5% monthly job jump that tied with four other states behind Montana’s 0.7% Pretty good. And, yes, we did gain jobs from July 2013 to July 2014.
But there is that seasonality. Take away the adjustment for the month-over-month performance and we lost 3,400 jobs, dropping to 806,500 wage jobs in July 2014..
The Department of Workforce Solutions continues to ignore these ugly details.
More but…
Our year-over-year job increase was the nation’s smallest increase, also 0.5%, giving us the nation’s second worst economy, just after Alaska, the only state to lose jobs in July. Thus, our performance, while slightly better, still trails everyone else (almost).
Year over year, on a not seasonally adjusted basis, New Mexico gained 4,300 jobs, or 0.5%, about the same as the June to July increase.
Shifting to “employment,” which is different from wage jobs, New Mexico lost 3,200 jobs from July 2013 to July 2014 on a not seasonally adjusted basis. Do the adjustment and the annual loss becomes “only” 500 jobs.
Our metro areas reflected the state performance, which has to figure. Three metro areas lost jobs: Albuquerque (-200); Santa Fe (-1,000); and Farmington (-500). Nationally 38 other metro areas lost jobs, year over year, while 327 gained. Las Cruces gained 900 jobs.
A review of the sectors show the bag as being decidedly mixed. Education and health services, the state’s largest “private” job sector with 125,400 people in July, added 5,000 employees over the year. The sector is only sort of private because of government involvement in health care. The federal government also sends large amount of money to “for profit” educational institutions.
Professional and business services, the state’s second largest sector and presumed home to big numbers of science and engineering people, as well as landscape architects, lost 1,500 jobs for the year including 1,200 in Albuquerque. The much smaller manufacturing sector dropped 2,000 jobs, including 900 in Albuquerque, bringing the job-loss streak to 21 months.
Mining, meaning oil and gas, continued to save the state with 1,500 more jobs, year over year, bringing the sector’s job total to 27,900.

Friday, August 22, 2014

NM Economy Nation's 2nd Worst

Alaska lost a few jobs during July, the only state to do so. New Mexico added 4,300 wage jobs, a 0.5% increase. New Mexico's increase, while a nice switch from the months of job losses earlier this year, places the state as the nation's second worst in term of percentage job performance. Our increase is the nation's lowest. Three states showed a 0.7% wage job increase in July, the next best performance. They were Illinois, Nebraska, and Connecticut.
These numbers come from the Department of Workforce Solutions and are in the issue of the Labor Market Review newsletter that was released today. More later, early next week, most likely, when I have had a chance to look at the newsletter.
Bottom line for NM: Doing a little better. Still doing poorly.

Tuesday, August 12, 2014

Abq Home Sales Continue Behind 2013

The headline said, “July home sales in Albuquerque area take a tumble.” The headline was on the website of Albuquerque Business First. It is true, but only tells half the monthly performance story. July’s 823 closed sales of single family detached homes were up from June by 23 units or 3%. The “tumble” was taken from July 2013, which had 939 closed sales. July 2014 was 12.3% behind July 2013.
The “news” from the July sales performance is two items. First, the monthly sales performance fell behind 2013 for the first time since March. Second, pending sales were below July 2013. Pending sales have been behind 2013 all year on a month over month basis. Any upward market momentum has disappeared, no surprise given the Duke City’s job non-performance.
With two exceptions (the average price in February and the median in March), prices have stay above 2013 all year. In July, both the metro average and median price hit 2014 highs. The July average, $230,750, was 8%, or $17,246, above June and 3.7% ahead of July 2013. Three single family homes sol for $1 million or more during July. The median beat July 2013 by $8,000, or 4.4%, and was up $10,000, or 6%, from June.
The 823 sales closed during July were 88% of the 939 sales pending during June.
During July, single family homes took and average of 60 days to sell, the same average sales period as both June 2014 and July 2013.
Sales of condominiums and townhouses run less that 10% of single family homes. On a year over year basis, these continue to be behind 2013.

Friday, July 25, 2014

Abq Breaks Bad

Find this news at http://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-vice-capitals-of-america-2014-07-25.

The report said, "...according to an analysis by DrugAbuse.com of words mentioned in more than 450,000 tweets that were “geo-tagged” in cities with a population of at least 200,000. DrugAbuse.com is a site that provides resources and treatment on drug addiction...Albuquerque, N.M., was named the vice capital for crystal meth..."

Monday, July 21, 2014

Pending Home Sales Down from 2013

With the delay in getting the monthly metro Albuquerque real estate report posted (the Greater Albuquerque Association of Realtors released the report July 10; sorry ‘bout that), I will limit the report to noting that pending sales of single family detached homes have been down on a year-over-year basis for all six months of 2014 as compared to 2013.
Closed sales have been down for three months. There were 800 closed sales during June, up three from May but 59 units, or 6.9%, behind June 2013.
The homes that closed during June were n the market an average of 60 days, the quickest sales period of 2014.
As compared to 2013, average and median prices have increase as compared to 2013 for five of the six months of 2014.

Friday, July 18, 2014

Job Numbers Up and Down: Ambiguity Appears

That the New Mexico job (non)production situation is not quite the nation’s worst is the takeaway from the job numbers for June released this afternoon. Ambiguously bad might be a good description. By the seasonally adjusted figures for June 2013 to June 2014 from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, New Mexico can claim being the nation’s third worst state economy with a loss of 400 wage jobs or less than 0.5%. Alaska, down 0.7% seasonally adjusted, led the nation, followed by Vermont, down 0.1% and then New Mexico. From May into June, Alaska again led, minus 1.7%, with West Virginia, at minus 1.2%. New Mexico and New Hampshire followed, tied with a 0.6% job loss.
The ambiguity came with the seasonally unadjusted numbers. Here New Mexico gained 2,500 job on the June-to-June basis.
The release from the Department of Workforce Solutions heralded this, saying “growth (in) positive territory for the first time in nine months.”
The DWS release continued the annoying administration policy of tucking reality under the rug by not mentioning the seasonally adjusted/not adjusted distinction. Nor, no surprise, did DWS mention the state performance comparisons.
A few sector figures: Seasonally adjusted manufacturing continued the sector’s disappearing act, down another 2,200 jobs, with the much larger professional and business services sector down 1,000.
Going to the seasonally unadjusted performances, mining added 1,700 jobs, finance continued the mystery growth with 1,700 more and jobs and government dropped 3,200 jobs.

Friday, July 11, 2014

Tennis and Tesla

All of 0.17% of New Mexico homes come with a tennis court, according to Trulia.com. Vermont has the most courts, tennis wise with 0.77%. The mention was in today’s Wall Street Journal, page M 12. I could not find the report at trulia.com.
Being electric, Tesla cars need things into which to plug. That much should be generally known. I hadn’t thought much about the details until seeing these stations this week at the Marriott TownePlace Suites hotel in Farmington. Hotel staff said the stations were installed last fall and have drawn traffic, as it were. The staff said Tesla drivers have stayed at the TownePlace specifically because of the electrical availability.
Tesla calls the stations “superchargers.” The only other New Mexico location, according to teslamotors.com/supercharger is at a Hampton Inn in Gallup.
Clever.
Hotel management did not respond to my email inquiry for more details.